The stats of 12 bad games

I guess we all have different reasons for collecting stats of War Thunder play.

I have experienced apparent imbalance lately, and I don't like it.

I played a series of China BR 8.0 this morning, and something significant (I believe) happened.

For 12 games in a row, I was uptiered to 9.0 in every single game and my team lost every single game.

I'm not a great player by any means, but I like to think I'm not THAT bad, dragging the whole team down with me all the time :)

I'm interested in statistics, but not good at it, so I need some help analyzing what's going on here.

Some observations:

China and Soviet were always on the same team.

While together with Axis always losing to Allies (5 times)

While together with Allies always losing to Axis (7 times)

First, being fully uptiered 12 times in a row, what are the pure odds of that happening? 4^12=millions?

Then what are the odds of losing 12 times in a row, IF we assume perfect balance? 2^12=4096 I guess?

Those combined are in the billions = should not happen = huge (fabricated) imbalance?

The only consistent factor of the losing team is that it contains China and Soviet. Are they so bad that having them on a team always makes the team lose? Are Allies and Axis pretty evenly balanced without them? Is it possible to put numbers on this? Can you for example extrapolate what would happen if Allies and Axis would meet China and Soviet (I know what would happen :))?

If Gaijin would allow freely mixed teams this problem would be both less pronounced, when for example Axis + China meet Allies + Soviet, but even more obvious when Axis + Allies meet China and/or Soviet. I've seen people on the offical forum speculate that imbalance sells premium vehicles etc. And they sure seem to sell premiums, counting all the XM-1's and Leo's I encounter. More Leo's lately.

I have a few thoughts about the Chinese tech tree.

<rant>

It sucks! Coming from mainly Soviet vechicles it's not that bad of a shock, but take the 8.0's. The Type 59 and Type 69. They are slow and sluggish T-55 variants. Me having some experience with in my opinion better vehicles, it's laughable when you face Leo's and all the other ultra mobile and fast reloading vehicles, especially in the near constant uptiering. The stock T-62 which is the Chinese prime premium seems like a good deal IF you've only played the Chinese tech tree. It saddens me to think of the players I see that has actually bought it (they also sell a T-34), and it angers me thinking of Gaijin deliberatly creating a "meh" tech tree and inducing a big BR imbalance on top of it just to sell more premiums, because that's what I think is going on. I believe the Chinese tech tree is the first tech tree this new management style is fully applied to. Sure most of the other nations premiums are to good for their BR, and you can pay to win, and it adds to the powercreep, but their tech trees already has good vehicles in them which Gaijin can't really touch. I don't like what i'm seeing, and as a Swede, they better not fuck up the coming Swedish tech tree too... Angry

Being a Swede is also my excuse for the bad english.

</rant>

On a side note, the regular Leo A1A1 has a slightly better K/D ratio than the premium.

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shogun1953 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 2018-Mar-25 Location: USA Status: Offline Points: 63	Post Options Post Reply Quote shogun1953 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: The stats of 12 bad games Posted: 2020-Feb-01 at 02:00
	what kind of help do you need? Edited by shogun1953 - 2020-Feb-01 at 02:00
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dummakuk Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Member Joined: 2020-Jan-21 Status: Offline Points: 14	Post Options Post Reply Quote dummakuk Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 2020-Jan-31 at 02:44
	Yes, I know that :) I was asking for help to analyze my stats. The ranting and opinions was just something I needed to get out of me :) I also made the post to try to get the forum going a bit. Edited by dummakuk - 2020-Jan-31 at 03:00

shogun1953 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: 2018-Mar-25 Location: USA Status: Offline Points: 63	Post Options Post Reply Quote shogun1953 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 2020-Jan-30 at 06:15
	I think you are complaining to the wrong people. We have no control on what BR you play in, we are in noway affiliated with Gaijin or War Thunder.
	Join us on our teamspeak. ts3server://n1lb.tsservers.com

dummakuk Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Member Joined: 2020-Jan-21 Status: Offline Points: 14	Post Options Post Reply Quote dummakuk Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 2020-Jan-29 at 16:29
	I guess we all have different reasons for collecting stats of War Thunder play. I have experienced apparent imbalance lately, and I don't like it. I played a series of China BR 8.0 this morning, and something significant (I believe) happened. For 12 games in a row, I was uptiered to 9.0 in every single game and my team lost every single game. I'm not a great player by any means, but I like to think I'm not THAT bad, dragging the whole team down with me all the time :) I'm interested in statistics, but not good at it, so I need some help analyzing what's going on here. Some observations: China and Soviet were always on the same team. While together with Axis always losing to Allies (5 times) While together with Allies always losing to Axis (7 times) First, being fully uptiered 12 times in a row, what are the pure odds of that happening? 4^12=millions? Then what are the odds of losing 12 times in a row, IF we assume perfect balance? 2^12=4096 I guess? Those combined are in the billions = should not happen = huge (fabricated) imbalance? The only consistent factor of the losing team is that it contains China and Soviet. Are they so bad that having them on a team always makes the team lose? Are Allies and Axis pretty evenly balanced without them? Is it possible to put numbers on this? Can you for example extrapolate what would happen if Allies and Axis would meet China and Soviet (I know what would happen :))? If Gaijin would allow freely mixed teams this problem would be both less pronounced, when for example Axis + China meet Allies + Soviet, but even more obvious when Axis + Allies meet China and/or Soviet. I've seen people on the offical forum speculate that imbalance sells premium vehicles etc. And they sure seem to sell premiums, counting all the XM-1's and Leo's I encounter. More Leo's lately. I have a few thoughts about the Chinese tech tree. <rant> It sucks! Coming from mainly Soviet vechicles it's not that bad of a shock, but take the 8.0's. The Type 59 and Type 69. They are slow and sluggish T-55 variants. Me having some experience with in my opinion better vehicles, it's laughable when you face Leo's and all the other ultra mobile and fast reloading vehicles, especially in the near constant uptiering. The stock T-62 which is the Chinese prime premium seems like a good deal IF you've only played the Chinese tech tree. It saddens me to think of the players I see that has actually bought it (they also sell a T-34), and it angers me thinking of Gaijin deliberatly creating a "meh" tech tree and inducing a big BR imbalance on top of it just to sell more premiums, because that's what I think is going on. I believe the Chinese tech tree is the first tech tree this new management style is fully applied to. Sure most of the other nations premiums are to good for their BR, and you can pay to win, and it adds to the powercreep, but their tech trees already has good vehicles in them which Gaijin can't really touch. I don't like what i'm seeing, and as a Swede, they better not fuck up the coming Swedish tech tree too... Being a Swede is also my excuse for the bad english. </rant> On a side note, the regular Leo A1A1 has a slightly better K/D ratio than the premium.